Unintended Consequences of Indian´s War against Gold

Due to the fact that Indian government imposed higher taxes on gold imports and new restriction on banks to sell gold (e.g. limits of sale per customer) gold smuggling has gone up several notches in India. Officials pointed out that smugglers and buyers of smuggled gold tend to save on import duty as well as other taxes like value added tax and income tax. There are two basic channels. One way is from Dubai and second one is from Thailand. There are also other consequences of this policy. Indians turns more to silver as well. While India imported 1,900 tons of silver in 2012, in the first five months of 2013 alone, imports have touched 2,400 tons. According to industry estimates, silver imports during the January-March quarter stood at 760 tons. Imports shot up to 720 tons in April alone, and in May they further swelled by 920 tons. To put it into the perspective it was 10 % of world production so far this year. This is also very interesting movement in the context that if any government starts to fight against gold public will move to the second option on the market – silver which was recognized within the history as monetary metals as much as gold.indian_war

Demand for gold decreased in Vietnam. There are there main reasons behind. First is that the Central Bank declared that it would keep selling gold to meet market demands in the coming time. Second reason is that local prices may keep falling despite rising global price because the gap between the two prices is over VND6 million for a tael (37.5 g) now. Third reason is that demand for gold itself has reduced as people are concerned about further gold price decline on the world market.

To encourage gold trading in the country, Singapore’s SGPMX, (Singapore Precious Metals Exchange) launched the world’s first physical precious metals exchange. Singapore tries to become a new world precious metal leader to replace Switzerland and London. The platform will operate 24/7 and will allow investors and traders to buy and sell physical gold for as little as $1,000 and it will also provide facilities to store gold with Certis Cisco Singapore.

Today´s price of gold cause lot problems to many miners. According to Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)’s Chief Executive Officer Nick Holland the bullion must rise at least to $1,500 an ounce for the gold mining industry to be sustainable. On the other hand mines cost differ each other. For example Gold Fields’s South Deep mine in South Africa can survive at the current gold price. The reason behind is the size of the mine and the fact that it’s largely mechanized and not dependent on labor costs.

Matúš Pošvanc

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About matus.posvanc

Trhu so zlatom a striebrom sa venujem od roku 2011. Prešiel som rôznymi fázami a pohľadmi na problematiku. "Trh je manipulovaný. To je jasné!" Inak by cena zlata predsa nešla dole. "Zlato na úrovni 100 tis. USD? Žiaden problém." Najneskôr do pár rokov. "Futures trh je najväčšie zlo a tzv. papierové zlato je nutné zakázať". Nuž, po dlhom štúdiu tejto problematiky, som hlúposti a táraniny opustil. Ostalo to, čo považujem za podstatné. Význam zlata je veľký. Avšak bez pochopenia trhu okolo neho, sa sám od seba znovu neobjaví. Kúpiť zlato ako časť svojho portfólia má zmysel. Snažiť sa na zlate zbohatnúť? To je iný príbeh. Jednu jeho časť nájdete na mojom blogu.
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