Mesačné archívy: december 2012

Fiškálny útes ostáva zatiaľ nevyriešený

Británia začala vážne flirtovať s myšlienkou odpojenia sa od EU. Obamova administratíva dokonca zareagovala v zmysle toho, že je v americkom národnom záujme, aby Británia ostala členom EU. Tieto slová zazneli potom, čo David Cameron pripustil, že odpojenie Británie je dnes „predstaviteľné,“ aj keď on osobne ho zatiaľ nepodporuje. Nebol by som prekvapený, keby sa v budúcnosti Británia vzhľadom na svoj dlhodobý konzervatívnejší postoj, čoraz viac odkláňala od politík EU a inflačných plánov ECB. A popularita exitov v Európe stále narastá. Nový katalánsky prezident Artur Mas je pripravený na vyhlásenie referenda o nezávislosti Katalánska od Španielska v roku 2014. Dovtedy má v pláne zriadiť vlastný daňový úrad a centrálnu banku. Ďalším kandidátom, ktorý drmolí o vystúpení, je Silvio Berlusconi. Ten pripustil, ž Taliansko bude donútené vystúpiť z EU vzhľadom na to, že ECB nemá dostatok politickej podpory (z Nemecka) na to, aby zaistila lacné požičiavanie si na trhoch.

Čo sa dá teda očakávať od roku 2013? Existujú rôzne predikcie. Moje obľúbené sú dve. Prvá je z úst prezidenta ECB Dragiho, ktorý vyhlásil, že reformy v eurozóne si získali jasnú podporu trhov a že to určite naštartuje ekonomiku. Druhý optimista je guvernér španielskej centrálnej banky Luis Maria Linde, ktorý predpovedá, že Španielsko vyskočí z kolien v priebehu dvoch rokov. To je inak dosť silná káva, keď si uvedomíme výšku nezamestnanosti medzi mladými (viac ako 50%), či prepadávajúce sa ceny nehnuteľností a fakt, že toxické úvery v krajine dosiahli nový rekord, keď vzrástli o 11% v priebehu jedného mesiaca.

ECB oznámila, že opätovne prijíma dlhopisy, za ktoré ručí grécka vláda a ktoré spĺňajú ďalšie kritériá, ako kolaterál (zábezpeku) v rámci euro systému. Aj keď to vyzerá naoko pozitívne, situácia v krajine sa nemení a krajina zaznamenáva pomaly odchod svojich obyvateľov do iných krajín EU za prácou. Medzičasom to vyzerá, že Cyprus bude na tom veľmi zle. Podľa predstaviteľov eurozóny potrebuje Cyprus nevyhnutne záchranný balík, avšak MMF najprv požaduje, aby krajina vyhlásila čiastočný bankrot, ako to bolo v prípade Grécka. O tom, že je situácia napätá, svedčí i fakt, že vláda si bola nútená požičať až 250 miliónov euro od štátnych penzijných fondov, pretože nemala na predvianočné výplaty pre svojich zamestnancov.

Pán Abe vyhral voľby v Japonsku. Mnoho analytikov sa raduje, pretože sa predpokladá, že japonská centrálna banka bude nútená zmeniť svoju politiku. Pán Abe vyhlásil, že Japonsko bude mať povinný cieľ 2% inflácie a cieľ 3% nominálneho rastu HDP. To by znamenalo, že centrálna banka by musela zabezpečiť zadlženej krajine v princípe nelimitované monetárne stimuly. Táto politika môže byť z krátkodobého hľadiska úspešná. Avšak je treba byť opatrný z dlhodobého hľadiska. Banka môže napr. nakupovať štátny dlh, avšak raz v budúcnosti ho bude musieť predať. Ak potom nebude nikto, kto by ho kúpil, resp. ho bude banka chcieť odpísať, dôvera v menu sa absolútne rozplynie a môže hroziť hyperinflácia v krajine.

Fiškálny útes a Vianoce sú témou dnešných dní v USA. Agentúra Fitch varovala USA, že v prípade, že nevyriešia problém fiškálneho útesu, zníži krajine 3-A rating. Agentúra už zmenila výhľad ekonomiky USA na negatívy, keď sa Obama a Kongres v lete nedohodli na termíne pre nový plán. Nemyslím si, že by Obama a Boehner (republikánsky líder) nenašli nejaký kompromis. Ide o národný záujem. Avšak nateraz trhy pozorne sledujú čo sa stane, pretože podľa posledných správ sa rozhovory odkladajú. Obamov posledný návrh bola ponuka zvýšenia daní o 1,2 bilióna USD a zvýšenie daní pre rodiny s ročným príjmov nad 400,000 USD. Na strane výdavkov má ísť o zníženie výdavkov o 1,2 bilióna USD (pozor nie ročne), čo zahŕňa i zníženie úrokov. Inak predpoklad na strane zníženia výdavkov v zmysle zníženia úročenia 16 biliónového dlhu, ktorý veselo narastá, musí implicitne zahŕňať aktivity FEDu. Inak by sa nízke úrokové miery, resp. ich zníženie zabezpečiť nedali. Vianoce sú témou dnešných dní. A ak by ste náhodou nemali ešte darček, tak sa môžete inšpirovať na nasledujúcom videu:

Veselé Vianoce praje Matúš Pošvanc

Fiscal cliff remains unsolved

Britain started to flirt explicitly about the EU leaving scenario. President Obama´s administration was forced to admit after that it is the America’s national interest to have Britain as a part of the EU. These words came after David Cameron admitted that the “Brixit” is now “imaginable”.  I will not be surprised if it is more and more often explicit for Britain not to be part of the EU once the ECB starts its inflation plans and European officials try to save the EU by some kind of socialist planning. The popularity of EU exists is rising. New Catalan President Artur Mas is prepared to call referendum about the exit of the region from Spain in 2014 and plans to create own tax agency and central bank. Silvio Berlusconi admits that the country will be forced to leave the EU unless the European Central Bank gets more powers (from Germans) to ensure lower borrowing costs.

And what could we expect from the New Year 2013? There are some predictions. My favorites are two of them. First on is from Mr. ECB governor Draghi who said that reforms in the euro area have revived confidence and that it will help to foster a recovery in euro area. Optimistic is also Mr. Luis Maria Linde, the Bank of Spain’s governor, who predicts that Spain will have recovered “almost all” the ground lost during the first disastrous years of euro membership. It is a little bit hard to believe because Spain has high unemployment, unbelievable unemployment among youth and bad loans in the country hit a new record when they rose above 11% for the first time in history.

ECB announces change in eligibility of debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the Greek government. Marketable debt instruments issued by the Hellenic Republic and fulfilling all other eligibility criteria shall again constitute eligible collateral for the purposes of Euro system credit operations. But situation for ordinary Greeks have not changed. Many Greeks are seeking job out of the country. In the mean-time Euro-zone member stated that Cyprus badly needs a bailout package but the International Monetary Fund is demanding a debt haircut first. The situation in country is quite alarming because Cyprus was forced to borrow €250 million from the pension funds of state-owned companies this week just to be able to pay the holiday salaries of civil servants.

Mr. Abe won the election in Japan. Many analysts are thrilled because BoJ will be very probably forced to ease its monetary policy. Mr. Abe said that the plan is to have 2% mandatory inflation and 3 % nominal GDP growth which mean that their central bank will have to promise unlimited monetary stimulus. This policy could be successful from the short term but we have to be careful from the longer term. BoJ could buy domestic bonds and decrease the debt of the country but one time in the future will be willing to sell bonds; if nobody buys them or if it writes bonds off it will be the first step for loosing of confidence to yen which could lead to hyperinflation in the country.

Fiscal cliff and Christmas are top topics in the US. The Fitch agency warned the US that if they do not solve the fiscal cliff problem the country will lose its triple A rating. Fitch changed its outlook for the U.S. rating to negative last year after Congress and the Obama administration failed to meet a deadline for a plan. I think that Obama and Boehner (Republican leader) will find some compromise. It is a nation issue. But for now the markets stay careful because according to latest news that talks have stalled. Obama’s latest budget offer would raise taxes by $1.2 trillion and increase tax rates for households earning more than $400,000 a year, up from $250,000 in his earlier proposal. Obama’s plan would cut $1.22 trillion in federal spending, including interest savings. Boehner’s “Plan B” would raise tax rates on annual income exceeding $1 million. I think that if spending cuts includes interest savings as one part of the plan it is necessary to involve the FED. Otherwise it would be impossible to save on interests because a huge $16 trillion debt. The second issue is about Christmas. So enjoy them and the last inspiration for presents you can find in this video:

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Merry Christmas. Matúš Pošvanc

Gold and silver surprise us. Negatively.

“Will gold and silver surprise us till the end of the year?” was the question of the last week. Answer was given very fast. Monday was pretty calm day and everything started on Tuesday. Someone has put on the market almost 780 tons of paper gold (32 % of annual production) and price felt down almost $ 30 in a few hours. Very similar pattern was on silver of course. The similar action was repeated after the rest day on Thursday when the price of gold ended under important support levels $1650 on gold and $30 on silver. Compare to other days of the week the Friday´s session was quite calm. Gold consolidated position over its important support level and silver almost did the same but closed just 4 cent under it.

Gold finally closed on $1656 per ounce what was $39.2 less than the previous week. Silver closed on $29.96 per ounce what was less $2.35 as well. The gold/silver ratio is 1 to 55.31 (i.e. you could buy 55.31 gram of silver for 1 gram of gold, it was 52.5 week before). Silver was hurt much more comparing to gold what was in accordance with the trend from previous weeks concerning short positions on COMEX. Remember what we wrote – silver shorts concentration had not changed and it had been some correction on gold; therefore it was logical that silver was hurt much more.

What is the crucial reason behind the drops of prices? Someone will claim that it was the situation about the fiscal cliff where someone could see some kind of solution; another could claim that it was the announcement of the FED from the last week about weaker dollar which caused that some hedge funds covered their losses on USD/EUR par by selling gold. Whatever you will claim that is behind the situation on gold and silver market price one thing is for sure. Nothing was solved. Debts are still debts, monetization is still monetization, and politicians have remained the same and as well as printing money into the economy. Therefore, I am rather on the side of these which emphasize the situation on the COMEX where some bullion banks have vast and concentrated short positions. It means that the concentration enables them to direct the price on both gold and especially on silver (for now). As we mentioned at the beginning of the December bullions banks try to attacked 200 day moving averages on both metals and it has happened. We will see how many shorts were covered and then we cold speculate about further price directions from the short term point. I think that it is still very possible that prices of both metals could go down and could attack some lower support levels. But who really know? Last year period between Christmas and the New Year was very volatile as well.

Overview of the prices of gold and silver for the remaining periods:

Gold

Silver

Source: upner.com, kitco.com

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Matúš Pošvanc

Zlato a striebro prekvapili. Negatívne.

Prekvapia nás nejako zlato a striebro do konca roku?” bola otázka minulého týždňa. Tento týždeň sa z časti vyriešila. Áno prekvapili. Negatívne. Pondelok bol síce pokojný obchodný deň, avšak všetko začalo v utorok. Niekto v priebehu pár minút umiestnil na trh 780 ton papierového zlata (32 % celoročnej produkcie) a cena behom 3 hodín poklesla o viac ako 30 USD. Podobný scenár sa odohrával na striebre. Potom nasledoval pokojný deň, aby prišla opätovne korekcia. Vo štvrtok sa cena zlata dostala pod 1650 USD, čo bola dôležitá podporná hranica. Striebro padlo pod 30 USD; rovnako dôležitý support. V porovnaní s predchádzajúcimi dňami bol piatok úplne pokojným dňom, kedy dokonca oba kovy posilnili. Zlato sa dostalo nad 1650 USD, ale striebro ostalo 4 centy pod 30 USD.
Zlato uzavrelo nakoniec na úrovni 1656 USD, čo bolo o 39,2 USD menej ako minulý týždeň. Cena striebra sa znížila o 2,35 USD a uzavrela na 29,96 USD. Pomer ceny zlata a striebra je na úrovni 55,31 (t.j. za gram zlata by ste si kúpili 55,31 gramu striebra; minulý týždeň to bolo 52,5). Cena striebra teda poklesla zásadne viac ako zlata. To je inak v súlade s tým, čo sme tvrdili po minulé týždne. Minulý týždeň krátke koncentrované pozície veľkých bánk na zlate poklesli a na striebre sa nestalo vtedy skoro nič. Čiže logicky bolo tento týždeň striebro postihnuté omnoho viac, ako zlato.
A čo stojí za cenovými pohybmi? Niektorí tvrdia, že to bola počas týždňa upokojená situácia ohľadne fiškálneho útesu v USA, iní za tým vidia, minulotýždňové oznámenie FEDu o tom, že bude znižovať hodnotu dolára, čo spôsobilo, že niektoré hedžové fondy uzatvárali pozície voči EUR/USD so stratou a tak museli predávať zlato. Aj keď budeme tvrdiť, že za pádom cien je jedno, či druhé, faktom ostáva jedno. Ekonomická situácia sa nevyriešila. Dlhy ostávajú dlhmi, monetizácia dlhov, ostáva monetizáciou a politici ostávajú stále tí istí. Z tohto dôvodu som skôr na strane tých, ktorí tvrdia, že za pádom cien sú koncentrované krátke pozície (stávka na pokles ceny) v rukách niekoľkých veľkých bánk na COMEXe. Práve koncentrácia pozícií umožňuje posúvať cenu smerom, ktorý si želajú dané banky (aspoň zatiaľ). Ako sme zároveň písali začiatkom decembra, veľké banky mali naozaj zámer dostať ceny pod ich 200 dňové pohyblivé priemery, čo sa im i podarilo. Uvidíme, koľko krátkych pozícií bolo uzavretých a potom, budeme môcť špekulovať ďalej o krátkodobých cenových pohyboch. Cena však, hlavne pri striebre, môže ísť ešte do konca roku nižšie. Ale kto vie? Minulý rok bolo obdobie medzi Vianocami a Novým rokom hektické a ktovie, či sa zopakuje.
Prehľad cien drahých kovov za ostatné obdobie:
Zlato
Striebro
Zdroj: upner.com, kitco.com
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Matúš Pošvanc

Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II saw gold in the Bank of England

The Bank of England set up some extraordinary steps to assure public about gold they hold in their vaults. First they introduced Professor Martyn Poliakoff who was allowed to film a real gold vault in the Bank of England where is stored gold worth more than $315 billion. Gold has lain there since 1913:

And then they invited her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II to visit the vault as you can see on another video:

The only question which remains unanswered is to whom gold really belongs because as Prof. Poliakoff said in the video gold still lies there but owners are always changing. These questions are proper. Just remember as we informed you for example about the fact that some central banks are allegedly involved on manipulation of gold price on gold markets via lending its gold reserves as was the case of Central bank of Austria two weeks ago. Gold Antitrust Action Committee also revealed the story this week that the IMF encouraged the lack of transparency on central banks holding in 1999. The not-for-public study from the IMF stated that the “number of countries with official-sector involvement in the gold lending market is now estimated to have reached over 80. The outstanding amount of gold lending provided by the official sector by end-1998 amounted to nearly 15 percent of official gold holdings of all central banks.” Could we therefore consider this story as a further piece of central bank involvement of gold price suppression puzzle?

The American lawmakers from Democrats field are starting to speculate about the reintroduction of the levy on gold. They stated that taxing of gold could enrich federal budget of billions of dollars. The suggestion is based on the 19th century law which imposed taxes on gold production in the US. The suggestion is 12.5% tax on all gold produced in the US field.

Gold imports from China declined in October by 32 % as slowing economic growth cut purchases. China bought only 47.47 tons of gold in October compare to 67.7 tons in September what was almost half less than at the same time in the previous year. In the first 10 month of the year China imported more than 629 ton of gold compare to 289 tons of gold from last year.

I do not know if you remember the story about Mr. NotHouse from the late of October. He was accused of domestic terrorism because he tried to introduce the alternative currency in the US called Liberty Dollars and was quite successful. These coins were traded also on the eBay network and the eBay was asked on November 29th by the U.S. Secret Service to remove all coins from the auction system and marked them as counterfeits.

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Matúš Pošvanc